As Trump moves to withdraw from global commitments, China is waiting in the wings
As US President Donald Trump announces plans to withdraw from various international organizations and agreements, China is positioning itself as a global leader and seizing the opportunity to fill the gap left by the United States on the world stage, analysts say.
On his first day in office after his inauguration on Monday, Trump signed executive orders that began the process of withdrawing from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, as he did in his first term.
The Republican president's moves cast doubt on the future of global public health responses and climate goals, and leave a leadership vacuum that China may seek to fill.
“This creates the potential for China to further strengthen its influence in the world's multilateral institutions and help govern the world,” said Gregory Chin, associate professor of political economy at York University in Toronto.
Indeed, China already seems to be sending those signals.
China messages
In what could be seen as a strategically timed meeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by video hours after Trump's inauguration, underscoring their continued alliance.
“I am ready to work with you to continue to guide China-Russia relations to a new high in 2025 to respond to external uncertainties,” Xi reportedly told Putin.
The Chinese leader said he wanted to “uphold international justice and fairness.”
Meanwhile, Chinese officials echoed the message at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland on Tuesday, defending the country's commitment to combating climate change.
“China has always been a staunch advocate of true multilateralism,” Vice Premier Ding Xuexian said, adding that the country “resolutely upholds the international system … and steadfastly upholds the international order based on international law.”
In terms of “peace and security”, Ding said that “China has the best record among the world's major powers”.
Also at a news conference in Beijing on Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun reiterated China's concern over the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
“Climate change is a universal challenge facing all of humanity,” he said. “China's determination and actions to proactively respond to climate change are consistent.”
During Trump's first term, the US also withdrew from numerous international agreements, including: Paris agreement on climate change, i Trans-Pacific Partnership and: UN Human Rights Council.
It seems that he continues on the same path.
When Trump won the presidential election in November over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, Jia Wang, a senior fellow and senior adviser at the China Institute at the University of Alberta in Edmonton, China could capitalize, told CBC News on the situation.
“China can use this opportunity to make more friends or at least reduce competitors and enemies,” he said.
Development cost
As the US turns inward, and as the new president preaches the beginning of an “America's Golden Age” and the end of its “decline,” China is asserting itself.
“Inadvertently, the Trump administration could weaken America's position in the world relative to China,” said York University's Chin.
At least on the climate front, China is positioning itself as a green leader taking initiatives for years to achieve its goal of carbon neutrality by 2060, including investing in renewable energy and leading the world electric cars and batteries.That's still the case though the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gaseswhich is responsible for a third of the world's emissions.
But this positioning, however strategic, is born out of necessity, says Yongjing Zhang, associate professor of economics and politics at the University of Ottawa.
“China really cares about climate change,” Zhang said, adding that the country is now suffering from the “cost” of its rapid development. “No matter what happens to other countries, China will address it.”
Simply put, he has no choice.
Global health security
On Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo also expressed strong support for the World Health Organization after Trump's announcement, saying China would “as always support the WHO in fulfilling its responsibilities by deepening international cooperation in the field of public health.”
Trump has accused the UN agency of being biased against China and criticized its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, as he did in his first term in office, when he also moved to oust US President Joe Biden, who succeeded Trump. after his first term as president, later reversed the decision.
However, China's future role in health care is more unclear, despite its messages the agency's largest financial sponsor, accounts for about 18 percent of its total funding.The WHO's most recent budget for 2024-25 was US$6.8 billion.
It is currently unclear how that funding gap will be filled, as experts have warned that the move could weaken global public health security and could weaken the world's defenses against future pandemics and infectious diseases.
Being allies 'means nothing now'
What is emerging from the first days of Trump's presidency is evidence that American allies are increasingly worried about what a more confident Trump will mean in his second term, given his unpredictability.
“You have to throw the terms of friendship and allies out the window,” says Lynette Ong, professor emeritus of Chinese politics at the University of Toronto. “It means nothing now.”
Ong said that while China may very well assert itself, he would like to see more evidence that the country will follow through on its words.
But York University's Chin said US isolation would ultimately mean other countries would face a decision within the alliance system.
“It's a choice between aligning with America moving forward or some multipolar options,” he said.
Those options, Chin said, could include: BRICS countrieswhich includes China and Russia.
U.S. President Donald Trump will not impose his promised tariffs on Canada, Mexico or China on his first day in office, according to multiple U.S. reports, putting the country on hold, at least for now.
“If you're in the West, you might see it as a threat to the so-called rules-based international order,” he said. “But if you're in the rest of the world, you might say some of these changes might actually be improvements to be.”
Like Trump threatens countries with high tariffs like China, Canada and Mexico, China reducing customs duties on hundreds of products coming to the country this month.And regardless of the motivation, China suggests that this may be just one reason that other countries may strengthen relations with the country while the US withdraws from it.
