The United States says that “the ball is now in Russia's court.” But what it really happens if Putin agrees to the ceasefire.
After negotiations in Jedddah in Saudi Arabia, officials expressed the announcement Ukraine has agreed to the US proposal an intermediate 30-day ceasefire And that “the ball is now in Russia's court.”
The statement was calculated as a step towards peace, and a sharp turn came into relations between Washington and Kiev, Russia did not comment on the proposal and said that it was waiting to hear the details from US officials.
US President Donald Trump expects to talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin in the next few days, and this week, the Trumpy Administrative Special Envoy Steve Whitkoff will visit Moscow this week.
Forcing Russia to agree with the short-term ceasefire, Putin previously said that he was against it, it would be a challenge. Russia is moving in the battlefield, including the Kursk region, where troops quickly push the Ukrainian forces to back down and return to Russian settlements.
The United States and Ukrainian officials have not published any details about what the ceasefire will lead to or how it will be considered. It is not clear how soon the sooner it can take effect if Russia agrees to it.
“For a long-lasting ceasefire, the parties will have to hamper a wide range of technical details,” said Walter Camp, Adviser to the Geneva Security Center.
“But the interim cessation of hostilities can open the path of negotiations to end the war.”
According to the agreement between the United States and Ukraine, Washington confirmed that it also raised its suspension of military assistance and intelligence exchange for Ukraine. This has shifted sharply only a week ago when Now a notorious confrontation in the White House US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky has refused the long-term alliance of two countries.
The Trump administration says that Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day interim ceasefire after a number of high stake meetings in Saudi Arabia. But Russia still needs to agree to it.
Much depends on Russia's response
But the path to the ceasefire remains fragile, pregnant and leaded political levers.
Camp says pressure from Washington should now be used in Moscow to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree.
If he does it, the challenge becomes how to make a ceasefire and make it the last.
If he does not, experts say that the United States can focus on smaller “trust strengthening agreements” to establish trust between the two sides.
“I think it is more realistic to have a kind of deity than the ceasefire,” said Camp. “It is not necessary that there is a complete ceasefire,” he said. “You can talk and shoot at the same time.”
Earlier, Ukraine offered a partial ceasefire, which would include suspending as a result of the attack by the sea, but American officials later rifle to stop hostilities along the entire front line.
Before officials talked short of talks, they did not specify how the ceasefire regime, even temporary, and who would be responsible for the monitoring, and should it be deployed at the front line?
Camp, which is originally from Canada, is now in Vienna, a group of peacekeepers and mediation experts, which have been regularly held by logistics and bases on a ceasefire agreement.
“The challenge is that the ceasefire actually invades how it works, how it works as it is done,” Kamp said.
“It is not possible to have a ceasefire, which is then broken the next day,”
Report detail how the ceasefire can be applied
Unlike current negotiations, which often played in the society, the group of security experts met with closed doors and produced a Detailed paper First of all, last month during a meeting in Switzerland, the foreign policy experts from the United States, Russia and Ukraine took part. It was later published in detailed opportunities for online and ceasefire monitoring and implementation.
The report offers to create a 10 to 15 kilometers buffer zone, where Ukraine and Russia will not be able to hold troops or weapons, and it is forbidden to use drones.
It mentioned that demining will be key, so monitors and peacekeepers can safely operate in the buffer zone.
While and Britain and France have pledged to deploy peacekeepers, Russia said It does not agree For a force from NATO countries in Ukraine.
US President Donald Trump said that Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledges the idea of Europe, which sends peacekeepers to Ukraine as part of the ceasefire agreement, and France's President Emanuel Macro said that Europe is ready to help.
Camp says that it may be necessary to include peacekeepers from India or Nepal from India or Nepal.
Ukrainian President Volodomir Zelopinsky has previously said that 200,000 Peacekeepers We need to be on the ground for the use of ceasefire, but the report called that number “unlikely and dangerous.”
The report notes that even 50,000 armed peacekeepers seem unrealistic and have proposed that an option could be a peacekeeping mission, consisting of 10,000 servicemen and civilian controls.
“You can use satellite images, voice pointers and other things to put tens of thousands of people in the triumph of this line,” Camp said.
In 2014, after the canned construction of Russian-supported separatists, the security and cooperation organization (OSCE) began controlling the control line separating both sides in Europe.
However, Kamp said one of the reasons that did not work because there were no reports. If the ceasefire has been violated, which could only register actions repeatedly.
In addition to responsibility, experts say it is imperative that both sides feel a deal, they can be “sold” citizens without a high political value.
The toilet appetite has changed
Most of the war was very little of the ceasefire.
On the contrary, Earlier, Charles Kopping of Foreign Affairs Council Charles Kopping and Professor of International Relations of Orjtown University, stated that he was putting pressure to be a deal.
“The total reaction, when I first started to end the diplomatic end in Ukraine, hit a few tons of bricks, and many of them did not know that many people said.
Kiev and his supporters hoped that the Ukrainian forces would restore the occupied territories and will leave Moscow weakened.
Russia – which most of the war pushes on the battlefield and managed to maintain its broken economy mainly As a result of the second global sanctions – He has repeatedly said that it is ready for the talks, but has never agreed to any concessions.
In the early months of Russia's entire scale invasion, there was Peace agreement This was partially compiled in Istanbul on April 2022, but it was destroyed and abandoned.
“Did the experience tried to try the Russians and Ukrainians to meet this last year in Qatar, to talk about this type of partial ceasefire, but it has never been,” Kopping said.
Now, At the place with the Trump administration, the fatigue of the war, which has been transformed into the ceasefire for more than three years.
But if Russia, who refused to remove its troops, is ready to make concessions, it rejects the deal, Kopping says that the negotiators should try to push on small contracts or civil infrastructure.
“I'm guessing that we will just have to test the waters,” Koppy said.
HotspentYou can create a level of confidence on both sides before trying to say good, it's done. It's quiet in line. “
